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Weekly Market Commentary

Financial markets traded largely on a reprieve from the prior weeks’ selling. As a result, foreign stocks and bonds sold off and buying was directed to US stocks and bonds. The Fed helped that sentiment saying that tariff inflation can be transitory and it still expects two more rate cuts sometime this year. Meanwhile, the hard economic data showed manufacturing still climbing out of its recessionary levels of the past two years. Housing was holding in with increases in New Home Starts and Existing Home Sales for February. The consumer is holding in with February Core Retail Sales up on the month and up 3.47% year over year. Overseas, Germany is sustaining its rebound with January Retail Sales reporting a further increase. Meanwhile, China continues to...... (click for more)

Benefits of Tactical

CLIENT-CENTRIC INVESTING: 
UTILIZING TACTICAL MANAGERS TO IMPROVE RISK/RETURN

Characteristics of Client Portfolios

The most common method for building multi-asset portfolios is based on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). The biggest issue we have with this approach is that it is not aligned with most investors’ view of risk. MPT utilizes a process that seeks an efficient portfolio with a given level of risk measured by return volatility. This misalignment manifests itself when the market is down 36%, and a portfolio is down 33%. In this case, the manager is patted on the back (receives a bonus) for outperforming their benchmark, and the investor is out 1/3 of their investment…  (click for more)

Monthly Market Commentary

Financial markets are high priced in an environment of rapidly shifting fiscal policy, which makes them susceptible to quick emotional reactions to headlines. Markets shrugged off upticks in inflation to post gains through mid-month. The following week they focused on marginal economic indicators to suggest the economy might be headed into a recession and proceed to a substantial sell-off. The final week the Trump Trade Tantrum reared its ugly head with the announcement that 25% tariffs would become effective on Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% on China effective March 4,2025. That prompted another substantial sell-off. Only a February 28, 2025 rally on improved inflation news reduced the week’s losses for the S&P 500 to -0.95%. Meanwhile,.... (click for more)
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