The latest twist in the Iran War brought down the price of oil. The July Jobs Report was much weaker than expected, reporting a loss of 23,000 jobs with downward revisions for the prior two months of 103,000 fewer jobs. That took the possibility of a Fed rate hike in September pretty much off the table. Both events helped drive down yields on US Treasuries which, in turn, reignited the bullish outlook for the economy. The other economic news releases supported that view. Overseas, business activity measures declined to neutral levels for Japan, China and Brazil. The S&P 500 ended the week up a substantial 3.58% with Foreign Developed at 2.25% and Emerging Markets at -0.43%. Overseas, Small Caps substantially outperformed Large Caps, while...... (click for more)

The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was apparently not well understood. Iran went back to harassing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the US resumed military strikes in Iran and oil prices predictably spiked. That led Treasury Bond yields to rise which hammered US Interest sensitive Bonds and popped the bubble on the AI trade. Yet the economic news remained quite bullish with manufacturing holding its solid growth rebound, the services sector moved to higher levels of solid growth and employers holding on tightly to current employees. Therefore, it is not surprising that the main business and consumer sentiment indexes have remained moderately positive, despite the headlines. While housing is still sluggish,...... (click for more)