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Weekly Market Commentary

The Iran War understandably dominated market sentiment last week. Furthermore, there is an understandable sensitivity and fear of a drawn-out war after 20 years in Afghanistan. However, talk about “the growing risk of a widening and drawn out war threatening the US economy and raising warnings of stagflation”, “setting off a race from Wall Street to Main Street for shelter from what many fear could be a doomsday scenario for the global economy” and “after nearly two weeks of intense American and Israeli airstrikes in Iran, investors are recalibrating for a potentially protracted crisis”. Really? After 2 weeks? And what is “protracted”? The lessons from WWII on the effects of air supremacy, not just air superiority, in bringing about the end of that war have.... (click for more)

Benefits of Tactical

CLIENT-CENTRIC INVESTING: 
UTILIZING TACTICAL MANAGERS TO IMPROVE RISK/RETURN

Characteristics of Client Portfolios

The most common method for building multi-asset portfolios is based on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). The biggest issue we have with this approach is that it is not aligned with most investors’ view of risk. MPT utilizes a process that seeks an efficient portfolio with a given level of risk measured by return volatility. This misalignment manifests itself when the market is down 36%, and a portfolio is down 33%. In this case, the manager is patted on the back (receives a bonus) for outperforming their benchmark, and the investor is out 1/3 of their investment…  (click for more)

Monthly Market Commentary

The market volatility masked solid underlying economic data and strong performance from more economically sensitive asset classes. Perhaps most importantly for the economy is a solid rebound in manufacturing while the services sector remains solid, although housing remains lackluster. Overseas, Japan’s new Prime Minister is promising new tax breaks and stepped-up defense and industrial spending and reports from Japan, China and Brazil show no signs of tariff inflation. 

The S&P 500 ended the month at -0.87% with Foreign Developed Markets at 4.23% and Emerging Markets at 5.50%. US Large Cap Growth, home to the AI trade, suffered a continued sell... (click for more)